Category Archives: Decision-making

Strategy and your brain

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It might seem that when it comes to strategic thinking, the brain is your ally. Not always. Our brains aren’t always rational, and we are unaware of the extent to which the mind takes shortcuts and makes assumptions. Charles Roxburgh writes about the brain in Hidden Flaws in Strategy (McKinsey Quarterly):

“Over the millennia of its evolution, it has developed shortcuts, simplifications, biases, and basic bad habits. Some of them may have helped early humans survive on the savannas of Africa (“if it looks like a wildebeest and everyone else is chasing it, it must be lunch”), but they create problems for us today. Equally, some of the brain’s flaws may result from education and socialization rather than nature. But whatever the root cause, the brain can be a deceptive guide for rational decision making.”

Roxburgh points out eight flaws that every leader should be aware of as they solve problems and make decisions. For example, our brains are overconfident in our own abilities. We think we can estimate far more accurately than we can, and we believe that enterprises that we’re involved in are above average. Related to this overconfidence is being overly optimistic – skewing toward the most positive projections about factors that are uncertain.

You can compensate for your overconfident brain by:

  • Testing strategies over a wider range of scenarios, and giving people a choice between an even (2, 4, 6…) number of options. If given an odd number of choices (e.g., 3), most will choose the safer middle option.
  • Mitigating the risk of getting monetary projections wrong by reducing your most optimistic estimate by 20% to 25%. If you’re estimating revenues of $5 million, reduce that “best case” figure to around $4 million.

Read the full article on McKinsey’s website (registration required), so you can plan around your flawed brain. You’ll be way ahead of your competitors who think their brain is just fine the way it is!

 

Want to be more strategic and execute well? Contact Humanergy for helpful tools that will make your brain even bigger!

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Embrace the fog

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Are you the type of person who prefers to look at the world through rose-colored glasses? If so, you may be missing some important aspects of your organization’s reality. Let’s face it. It ain’t all pretty. And some parts of reality are just darn confusing. There are some facts that you may be blissfully unaware of if you don’t actively seek the unvarnished truth.

Remember our blog post about the Stockdale Paradox?

Yes, it may feel easier to just float in big picture generalities and forget about reality. But what are the benefits of turning on the fog lights to see the vivid landscape?

Keeps you from getting comfy. Good is the enemy of great, and it doesn’t take long to get complacent when things seem to going well. Don’t over-inflate the doom and gloom, but do keep a sense of urgency that is necessary for high performance.

Prevents expedient (and wrong) solutions. Quick fixes are often not that quick, since they don’t address the root of the problem. When you have a firm grasp on the entire reality, you’ll identify lasting solutions to the most critical problems.

Does not negate hope. We are all about optimism, AND it must be directed thoughtfully, with full understanding of what is going on. Blind faith that everything will work out serves no purpose. Hopeful, positive action that is aligned with your organization’s strategic priorities will win the day.

Engages imagination. Accepting the brutal reality is not an indication that you are giving up. In fact, reality is a potent springboard for launching your creative energies. With a full understanding of what you’re facing, you can activate your people’s imaginations and ingenuity to create an amazing future.

Existing in murkiness can be a real downer. Keep your sense of humor as a tool to dispel the gloom. As Herm Albright said, “A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to be worth the effort.”

 


Do you make too many decisions?

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Leaders take pride in being able to make well-reasoned decisions – and lots of them. A recent article in the New York Times Magazine should give all frequent decision-makers pause. It turns out that all decisions, even minor daily choices, like whether to have a bagel or a banana, contribute to decision fatigue. The more decisions you make each day, the worse at making them you are.

John Tierney writes in To Choose is to Lose, “Decision fatigue helps explain why ordinarily sensible people get angry at colleagues and families, splurge on clothes, buy junk food at the supermarket and can’t resist the dealer’s offer to rustproof their new car. No matter how rational and high-minded you try to be, you can’t make decision after decision without paying a biological price.”

That price is reduced mental energy that saps self-control, willpower, judgment and discernment – all qualities that leaders need in vast quantities. Essentially, your brain is tired, even if your body does not perceive it, and you take unconscious shortcuts in decision-making.

How can you maintain healthy decision-making and mitigate the dangers of decision fatigue?

Recognize it. Many leaders like to think that they are decision-making machines, capable of analysis and decisiveness from dawn to dusk. They do not want to admit that their capabilities can be limited by the number of decisions they make. In fact, their egos often lead them to believe that they get better and sharper as the day goes on. To be on the safe side, examine your mental energy at various times of the day. When are you most prone to act impulsively? Take steps to move critical discussions and judgments to a time of day when you’re fresh.

Feed your brain. Tired brains can be restored and decisions improved, in part, by ensuring that the brain is operating on enough glucose, the simple sugar our bodies get from a number of food sources. Keeping your blood sugar levels appropriately high will give your brain the energy it needs to consider implications, look at long-term prospects and make sound judgments. A Snickers bar might seem like the jolt your weary mind needs. However, the problem with the candy bar is the sugar low that soon follows, leaving you less capable of thinking clearly. The best solution is a balanced diet that gives you sustained energy throughout the day, to keep your mental acuity on an even plane.

Reduce the quantity of decisions. If the decision doesn’t have to be made by you, don’t do it. Whether it be what color to paint your office or where to hold a meeting, delegate decisions and let others make choices that aren’t critical for you to make.

Decide ahead of time. Lay out your clothes the night before, prep breakfast and pack your lunch for the next day. This will reserve more brain energy for today’s important decisions.

Examine some choices. Reserve the right to review your decision, particularly if you’ve made it under less-than-ideal conditions. While this isn’t always possible, sleeping on a critical determination will allow you to figure out if it still makes sense to your better-fueled brain.

Adjust implementation. Maybe the decision is the right one, but the details of implementation may have been overlooked by your fuzzy mind. The devil really can be in the details, as William Pollard noted when he said, “It is not always what we know or analyzed before we make a decision that makes it a great decision. It is what we do after we make the decision to implement and execute it that makes it a good decision.”

You can’t avoid making decisions, even if you want to, so take steps to amp up your mental energy. Frequent breaks for food and relaxation may seem like you’re slacking, but they are really fundamental success strategies. Focus on the more commonly-known decision-making best practices (latest data, trends and analysis), AND examine your brain’s energy stores to see if you are up to the task at hand.


Strategic persistence: Don’t give up if the cause is right

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You have a position on an issue or a new idea that you believe is right for the organization. In spite of significant effort, the innovation isn’t gaining traction. In fact, there appears to be significant opposition. It can be tempting to throw in the towel, even when you have the facts to support your position. How do you persist when you know you’re right and others aren’t on board?

Persuasion involves more than charisma and charm. Patience, time and a disciplined set of strategies are required.

Shape the discussion. You need to be the one driving the conversation.  provide the facts, give the context and connect the dots for others who need to get on board.  By all means, include others’ perspectives.  Just don’t let them be the spokesperson for the topic.

Infect others. Think of your idea as an epidemic that needs to be spread. Your enthusiasm and ability to articulate your argument can be persuasive tools. Figure out who the key players are in this situation.  They may or may not be people in positions of authority. Some people may be “connectors” -  individuals with broad social networks who are able to influence others (see Malcom Gladwell’s book, The Tipping Point).

Be nice. Forget taking off the gloves; you won’t advance your position by getting into a sparring contest with your opponents. You will score points by punctuating your argument with self-effacing humor and an open mind.

Know your opponents’ position. Play devil’s advocate and come up with every conceivable reason why your idea is terrible. You can then anticipate the opposition’s arguments and be prepared to derail them before they are mentioned. Your adversaries will come up with some unexpected roadblocks, so be ready to think on your feet.

Adjust to new realities. External factors may change the equation. Be prepared to adjust your plan and your persuasive tactics based on new information. This will show a fluid grasp of the situation at hand, and you won’t be caught using last year’s data for this year’s problem.

Outlast them.  Be calmly persistent and keep the issue front-of-mind for key people. Sometimes the victor is simply the person who is willing to continue playing the game.

Persistence involves resilience over time and the ability to maintain serenity in the midst of turmoil. Don’t underestimate the power of simply maintaining a forward momentum. As Calvin Coolidge said, “The slogan ‘press on’ has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race.”

Want to be more persistent when the time is right?  Or could your team learn some new strategies for “pressing on”?  Contact Humanergy.

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I’m always right

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I don’t know about you, but I’m pretty much always right. I may be able to put on a face of openness, but I am at heart a very opinionated person. Ask me about almost any subject, and I most likely will have a strong (and well-reasoned) opinion on it.

The difference between me and the folks I find downright scary? I am willing to admit that I don’t know everything, and there are whole areas about which I am clueless (e.g., opera and poetry). I am also willing to change my mind based on a compelling set of facts, personal experience or the counsel of wise people. In other words, I know I’m right AND I’m not so rigid that I am unwilling to listen, learn and change my mind.

Leaders are supposed to be open to new ideas and shift strategies when circumstances dictate. Not all do that effectively. It seems to come from a deep need to be right, which is really just masking a deep fear that they aren’t as competent as they should be.

Since it’s unlikely that you’d identify yourself as a person who must be right all the time, how can you work with someone else who is sure they’ve cornered the market on brains?

Know thy know-it-all. You’ll work more effectively with the alleged wiz if you understand what makes him or her tick. How does this person like to receive information? Do they need to know the details, or would they be more impacted by the big picture view? Would it be better to provide a visual, a bullet point list or a detailed report? Align your interactions to meet their needs, and you’ll eliminate some of the roadblocks to working together.

Appeal to their (fragile) egos. I’m not a big fan of sucking up in any form. When dealing with people who are insecure and can never be wrong, it is sometimes necessary to employ the “you-said-something-the-other-day” strategy. If you have a compelling argument for a certain decision, start from something the know-it-all said (and feel free to take a little license from there). For example, “You mentioned the budget for the ABC acquisition yesterday, and I figured you were wondering about the numbers. I took a look at them, and you’re right. We are 20% over budget! Here’s a strategy for coming in on target.” The most important part of this strategy was the “you’re right” part, which is music to their ears.

Combat their unrealistic optimism. Leaders who must be right find it difficult to appropriately gauge risk. They are overly optimistic that everything they touch will turn into gold. Proceed with caution, but do bring the facts to light. Portray it as the way to “maximize their brilliant innovation” and it will be an easier pill to swallow.

Here’s one of the most frustrating things about people who think they’re always right. Even when they do switch sides on an issue based on more information, know-it-alls find it hard to view themselves as being wrong in the first place. As Ashleigh Brilliant said, “My opinions may have changed, but not the fact that I am right.”

Want to find out more about working with your (un)friendly neighborhood know-it-all? Contact Humanergy.

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What you need is some tension!

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Few people would lobby for more tension at work. Yet there are ways in which tension can not only be helpful, but transformative. Artists talk about the need to linger in a state of tension in order for the creative juices to flow. Likewise, people in organizations need a little agitation to keep collaboration alive.

Jim King wrote in an HBR blog that tension in teams is a good thing. He praises teams who handle it openly and don’t bury discomfort in the name of team unity. To keep discomfort to a minimum, Mr. King recommends physically arranging the team around a whiteboard, so that they are facing “the issue” instead of other team members. He also reinforced the need to keep the discussion focused on facts, not personal aspects. Too often, people assume that others have the same knowledge, when in fact they see reality much differently. Aligning on the verifiable truth early will avoid angry outbursts later.

Taken too far or dealt with inappropriately, tension can be destructive. How can you diagnose whether the tension your team is experiencing is destructive or transformative? The telltale signs of destructive tension are:

  • People frequently use the phrase, “Yes, BUT…”
  • Thinking is narrow, limited to short-term or the current situation only
  • Individuals “own” parts of the process or project and aren’t open to others’ ideas
  • There is lots of talking, but little listening
  • Little to no mutual understanding
  • Tension is not dealt with openly, but shows itself indirectly (e.g., snide remarks, silos and lack of communication)

When you have transformative tension in your team, you will see an increase in:

  • Creativity and innovation
  • Free flow of ideas
  • Listening for deep mutual understanding
  • Respectful treatment of everyone
  • Valuing ideas, even if they are new or unusual
  • Use of the term “Yes, AND…” to build on suggestions
  • Group ownership of projects and processes
  • Acceptance that positive tension can be productive and necessary

Maybe we should embrace the fact that tension is an inevitable and even necessary part of work life. As the old saying goes, Goodbye tension, hello pension!

Have a question about this topic or want some input from Humanergy? Contact us!

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Life is always better on the high road

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Imagine how the world would be different if everyone made choices that were 100% aligned with the greater good. Humanergy calls these transformative choices. Transformative choices ensure that everyone is successful and has the power to renew relationships, teams and results. We not only encourage our clients to make transformative choices; we hold ourselves to that standard.

Making transformative choices is about values, your knowledge of reality (the good, bad and ugly), your understanding of the people involved and self-care. Remember: Self-sacrifice isn’t transformative and does nothing to promote the greater good.

The short- and long-term benefits of sticking to this high road are:

It takes less energy. It may seem like factoring in the greater good might take more time and energy. In fact, transformative choices often simplify the equation. Instead of calculating the myriad of political implications of a decision, you ask how each option serves the greater good. When you make transformative decisions, you spend less time cleaning up the messy impact of destructive decisions.  You don’t need to engage in “spin” to justify transformative decisions. You don’t have to remember which version of the truth you gave to Person A versus Person B. As Mark Twain said, “If you tell the truth, you don’t have to remember anything.”

You don’t keep score. Because you’re always working toward the greater good, you don’t engage in “I must win” thinking. By upholding the greater good, you are part of that positive impact as well. When people around you make self-centered choices, you don’t get even; you figure out if you can help them choose differently next time. Transformative leaders understand the power structures around them, yet do not become slaves to power or use it recklessly.

You reap what you sow. Staying on the high road doesn’t guarantee an easy life, AND consistently striving for the greater good brings you peace of mind, a priceless gift. The biggest driver of this contentment is the quality of your relationships, based on authenticity and mutual respect. Those connections with others are more resilient when times get tough.

You focus on the stuff that matters. Transformative people don’t worry about the things they cannot impact. They concern themselves with what they can control or manage, such as their own daily choices and the quality of their interactions with others.

You live with fewer regrets. Nobody’s perfect, and you won’t always make the best choices. Striving for transformative choices gives you the comfort of knowing that you operated within your best self – not allowing selfishness, bitterness or anger to take root, even if you occasionally indulge in petty thinking or behavior.

A commitment to the greater good is the best way to make the right decisions. Making transformative choices does not require saintly virtue or anything approaching perfection. It requires humility, thoughtful reflection about what is important and goodwill toward others. These are the foundations that provide a compass to guide you, even in the midst of chaos. While there may not seem to be as much traffic, the high road is always a better place to be.

Have a question about this topic or want some input from Humanergy? Contact us!

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The power and limits of logic

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I am an unapologetic Trekkie. My favorite Star Trek character was Mr. Spock, the half-Vulcan, half-Human second-in-command. His Vulcan side was all about logic. Mr. Spock was the calm, rational figure in the midst of interplanetary strife. Mr. Spock once remarked, “Nowhere am I so desperately needed as among a shipload of illogical humans.” How does logic play into leadership?

Most leaders believe that they are logical, and think they assume the role of Mr. Spock in their organizations. They think critically and act in a rational manner. Accusing a leader of behaving illogically is tantamount to insulting their integrity.

The reality is that we humans are not always rational and misuse logic in order to advance our ideas, most often without even being aware of this misstep. Our emotions are in play at times when we least suspect it. (Even Mr. Spock experienced emotional outbursts that he found quite disturbing.) What are the positive aspects of logic and how can it also limit your leadership?

Make decisions based on facts and analysis AND past experience, intuition and nonlinear thinking. Intuition isn’t mumbo jumbo; it’s tapping the innate knowledge you’ve gained over the years.

Be methodical AND don’t be a one-method leader. Use the right leadership style for the people around you – not necessarily the one that is the most comfortable. Switch up your routines periodically to refresh your thinking and even establish new neural connections. Even something as simple as using your non-dominant hand to do routine tasks (like brushing your teeth) will stimulate your brain. Examine your habits and resolve to do one thing differently each week.

Establish order and structure AND allow time for creative thought and expression. Feel like every moment of your day is planned? Make a commitment to take 15 minutes each day for free-flowing thinking and action. Take a walk, move to music and allow your mind to wander. It will find its way home, refreshed and ready for the next challenge.

Make logical arguments AND recognize that it can make you over-confident. All it takes is one flawed assumption that we judge to be true. Then a whole cascade of false assumptions are made, in the name of sound judgment. Carefully examine the assumptions that underpin your logic. Seek new insight from others who may know more than you, and be ready to abandon old, defective ideas.

Apply logic AND only apply logic where it fits. Be cautious about your leaps of logic when you strive to connect things that have no relationship (or at least not the one you ascribe). One area where logic is unreliable is human behavior. Throw in spirituality, politics and relationships – and you’ve just scratched the surface of the vast territory where logic plays a bit part. Insisting upon a 100% rational approach in these arenas is asking for frustration and bad outcomes for all.

As Leonard Nimoy, who played Mr. Spock once said, “Logic is the beginning of wisdom, not the end.” Live long and prosper.

Have a question about this topic or want some input from Humanergy? Contact us!

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Get real about procrastination

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“If it weren’t for the last minute, I wouldn’t get anything done.” Author unknown

Okay, in the spirit of full disclosure, I must admit to you that I’m working on this blog at the very last minute, and I’m woefully behind on a number of projects that really need to happen. So one of my resolutions is to get off my butt and address the pressing issues I have been ignoring.

Are you starting 2011 with a renewed commitment to stop procrastinating? Millions of people are in your (our) shoes, but how many of them will succeed in tackling those critical things that never seem to get done? Sadly, not many. How can you banish procrastination once and for all?

Be brutally realistic. Subconsciously, you have already decided that some of the items on your list are never going to happen. Maybe they’re not that important to you, and you’ve taken them on simply to please someone else. You may be incapable of doing a task, but reluctant to accept that fact. It could be that it’s really not essential. Whatever the reason, erase the work you realistically won’t do from your list. Then you can direct your energies to the things you must do.

Conquer time. Many people complain that the reason they don’t get important work done is that they don’t control their schedule. That simply isn’t true (unless you are in prison, perhaps). The real truth is that although you may not have a lot of time, you have some. What you do with that time is your choice. Read our blog called Ruthless time management for the frantically busy.

Do it first. Don’t allow yourself to start the day without addressing the most vital of your put-off-tasks. Otherwise, you’ll get distracted from what is truly most important. See our blog post called Act strategically. Eat the frog first.

Chunk it up. If just thinking about the enormity of the job makes you queasy, start by breaking it up into manageable bits. Don’t allow yourself to wallow in the vastness of the task; as Dorie in the movie, Finding Nemo, said, “Just keep swimming…just keep swimming.”

Get help. If you think you have to do it all yourself, think again…and read our blog post called Help! I need somebody. Recruit someone to tangibly help, be a sounding board or hold you accountable.

Make a public commitment. Nobody wants to be caught not doing something they’d committed to do. Use your fear of embarrassment by making your resolution specific, deadline-driven and public. Explicitly tell people how they can help keep you on track.

Build in consequences. Finally finished that basement renovation? Schedule a massage. (You might need it.) Consequences can be positive or negative, but they should be incentive enough for you to do this hard work.

Give up on perfection. Remember The Cult of Done Manifesto, part of which states, “Laugh at perfection. It’s boring and keeps you from being done.” Perfection is unattainable and unnecessary. Your best has to be good enough. Otherwise, delegate it to someone else who could do a better job.

You show what you value not by what you talk about, or lay awake pondering, but by what you do. So get off the computer and spend a few minutes zeroing in what you’ve been trying to avoid. You may find that it’s easier than you think. Olin Miller said, “If you want to make an easy job seem mighty hard, just keep putting off doing it.” Like writing blogs, for instance.

Have a question about this topic or want some input from Humanergy? Contact us!

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Making decisions under pressure

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For some people, making decisions isn’t easy. Decision anxiety is on the rise, in part because it’s very difficult to grasp all of the ever-changing dynamics of situations. When the stakes are high, it is tempting to delay decision-making by continuing to gather extraneous data, hoping that a foolproof answer will emerge. Some leaders defer tough decisions to a committee, hoping that a group of people can create a miracle. Knowing that no decision-making is guaranteed to produce the results you want, how do you avoid either a knee-jerk reaction or decision paralysis?

Know your biases. Research done for the U.S. military at the Georgia Tech Research Institute showed that people develop unconscious strategies that help them simplify decision-making. These strategies or biases allow people who must process lots of information to draw quick conclusions. This study, aimed to improve decision-making under fire, found many different kinds of biases. Some of the most applicable to non-military leadership decisions are:

  • Absence of evidence. Not considering missing information that is relevant to the decision.
  • Oversensitivity to consistency. Giving more weight to multiple reports of information, even if it comes from one source.
  • Randomness. Perceiving a causal relationship between two or more events, even if they aren’t related.
  • Vividness. Giving greater weight to information received directly, rather than secondhand, even if the secondhand information is more valid and relevant.

People use these unconscious biases to categorize, weigh and interpret vast amounts of data quickly. They weed out certain kinds of information and draw quick conclusions about others – some of which can lead to errors in judgment. How do leaders make decisions “under fire” without succumbing to these ineffective shortcuts?

Ask, “what information is missing?” Enter every decision assuming that you don’t know everything yet. Then make a concerted effort to uncover any missing data that impacts the situation. This may mean re-examining the old parameters and assumptions that underpin your decision, given the dynamic business climate.

Seek out new sources and new types of information. Remember that even if a person gives you the same message repeatedly, that does not make it true. Seek out different perspectives and emerging knowledge to inform your decision. If you always ask the same customers for their feedback, for example,  try another approach. Seek out clients who were dissatisfied or a brand-new customer to gauge first impressions. Resist the urge to chart your course based on a single source, no matter how persuasive the argument presented.

Find real root causes. Be rigorous in defining the causes of the problem you are addressing. It is easy for our brains to jump to conclusions based on the timing of events and other superficial evidence. Carefully scrutinize the assumptions you’re making about causal relationships. Also, make sure that the decision you make addresses the root cause – not just the symptoms – or you will be back trying to solve that problem all over again in the near future.

Weigh information impartially. Information you receive directly, especially when it’s persuasively verbalized, can be compelling. Combat the urge to give that first-hand account more credence by identifying trusted people who can fact-check and/or plays devil’s advocate. Remember that what may be appealing about one particular message may relate more to your emotional reaction than to its validity.

If you follow these best practices, will you have 100% confidence in all of your decisions? Sadly, no. You must accept that there is a gray area of unknowns and make your best educated and informed decision. If you find you’re going the wrong way,  don’t hesitate to pull the plug or adapt your strategy in order to meet your goals. As Paul Sullivan writes in his article titled Being Clutch, Or How Not To Choke Under Pressure, don’t fall in love with your plan (or in this case, your decision). What you can love is the process of making decisions the right way.

Have a question or want some input from Humanergy about this topic? Contact us and we’ll get right back to you!